ES_F Levels to watch –

Weekly price range assessment -2106.5 support ; 2165.5 resistance –

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Outlook for October 28, 2016 –

ES_F– I have to say that I always get a little excited when the market comes into the spots of a battle of wits – where many bright traders see the same patterns and then begin to trade against each other. This is what I saw yesterday and overnight as we tested deep edges of support and then bounced into the resistance zone. Beautifully, though, as the edges broke and held for a short time, they quickly reversed back into the congested zone near 2126.   The move overnight expanded the range, but bounces from the lows have us mildly green. We should still remain range bound into the election. Tight congestion pattern is present between 2123 to 2127, and 2133 to 2137. Support holds near 2113-2107, and resistance sits at 2151-2154.

Here’s the economic calendar for a rundown of today’s releases

RANGE OF TODAY’S MOTION

E-mini S&P Futures

Upside trades – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2131.75, or a positive retest of the bounce off 2123 with upward momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2123 are 2126.5, 2130.75, 2136.5, 2140.5, 2142.5, 2144.75, and 2149.5. As always, additional targets will be in the Members only portion of the morning blog.

Downside trades- Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2121.5, or at the failed retest of 2130.5(watch for the higher low if this is attempted) with negative divergence. Retracements into lower levels from 2130.5 give us the targets of 2127.5, 2125.25, 2123.5, 2120.25, 2117.75, 2116, 2112.5, and 2107.25. Additional targets will be in the Members only portion of the morning blog, and in the live trading room.

Nasdaq Futures

The NQ_F followed the path of the $ES_F down, and ran into the familiar level near 4787, but it has also returned to congestion levels of interest. The level to breach in the $NQ_F will be 4818 and as long as we stay below that level we will be prone to sell off. New resistance areas are 4838 to 4854. Today’s support sits in the region between 4754 and 4780.

Upside trades – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4818, or a positive retest of 4790 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Bounces might be big, but are likely to give way to selling in the current pattern. Targets from 4790 are 4806.75, 4814, 4817.5, 4824, 4829.5, 4833, 4840.5, 4848, 4851.75, 4855, 4862.25, 4866.25, and 4871.5. As always, additional targets will be in the Members only portion of the morning blog, and in the live trading room.

Downside trades-Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4817 (needs negative momentum here for continuation), or at the failed retest of 4851 with negative divergence. Retracements into lower levels from 4851 are 4848, 4844.5, 4840.25, 4834.75, 4829.5, 4818, 4814, 4806.5, 4801.75, and 4976.25. See the blog for additional targets.

Oil

The WTI chart continues to move in a sideways path. Our support level of 49 held yesterday but a retest of the level looks likely. The sentiment continues as negative in the short term – so the battle to be won remains at 49. Big spikes in either direction will likely drift back into the region between 49.4 and 52.42 for the week.

Trading ranges have expanded- 48.11 to 52.42 in the current pattern.

Upside trades can be staged on the positive retest of 49.62, or at a positive retest off 49.02 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 49.02 are 49.28, 49.6, 49.79, 50.06, 50.34, 50.74, 50.96, 51.09, 51.36, 51.65, 51.82, 52.02, and 52.24 to 52.42. See the blog for more details on the chart action.

Downside trades can be staged on the failed retest of 49, or at the failed retest of 50.02 with negative divergence. Targets from 50.02 are 49.86, 49.68, 49.61, 49.33, 49.11, 49.02, 48.69, and 48.34. Additional targets will be in the Members only portion of the morning blog, and in the live trading room.

If you’re interested in watching these trades go live, join us in the live trading room from 9am to 11:30am each trading day by joining the Platinum Level Membership.

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You will always be making the best choice for lowered risk by waiting for the retest with momentum confirmation.

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As long as your levels hold in Platinum entries, holding overnight is perfectly acceptable, turning the intraday swing event, a short term swing – and thereby increasing profit opportunities.

Ultimately, momentum should agree across two times frames at least.

Please note that most entries long will require a pullback into support, and most entries short will require a press up into resistance.

Only when the squeeze is present with momentum indicators all agreeing will we take the breakout levels.

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