ES_F Levels to watch –
Weekly price range assessment -2141.5 support; 2204.75 resistance
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Outlook for August 10, 2016 –
ES_F– Trading has been quiet and bound in a tight range as price consolidates at these higher levels for the third day in a row. Momentum continues as bullish but not accelerating. We hover near 2180, and new support builds near 2177; below that, we see 2171 -2168.5. More congestion lies in the 2166.5 region. Resistance is shifted up slightly into 2184.5, but could stretch into 2187.5 today. Buyers are still in charge, but working through overhead supply.
RANGE OF TODAY’S MOTION
E-mini S&P Futures
Upside trades – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2183, or a positive retest of the bounce off 2177 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2177 are 2179, 2181.25, 2183, 2184.5, 2187.5 and if we expand, we may stretch above into 2189.75 and 2190.5.
Downside trades- Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2177 or at the failed retest of 2181.5 with negative divergence. Keep your eyes on the lookout for higher lows developing intraday. Retracement into lower levels from 2181.5 gives us the targets 2178.5, 2176.75, 2174.75, 2172.5, 2169.5, 2166.75, 2164.5, 2161.5, 2159.5, 2156.75, and 2153.5, if sellers take over.
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The NQ_F holds price while momentum remains flat, but in positive territory. Overhead supply continues to be a problem for the charts. Support sits at 4782. Below that, we see 4778.25 as lower support. Resistance levels are now between 4797-4808.75, with a breach that could stretch into 4818 – 4825.75 in the coming days. Retests of support action for long entries have worked nicely, and should continue to do so. Pay attention to lower highs developing, or the break of support as this could signal a rollover event.
Upside trades – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4787, or a positive retest of 4800.5 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 4787.5 are 4793, 4794.75, 4796.25, 4798.25, 4800.5, 4804.75, 4808.75, 4812, 4816.25, and 4818.25 to 4825.75, if buyers continue the rally north.
Downside trades-Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4782, or at the failed retest of 4799.5 with negative divergence. Retracement into lower levels from 4799.5 gives us the targets 4794.75, 4791.25, 4787.5, 4784.25, 4781.5, 4776.75, 4772.25, 4766.5, 4762.25, 4754.5, 4746.75, 4743.5, 4739.75, 4735.75, 4730.5, and 4726.5 to 4721.5, if sellers resume control.
API reports after the close yesterday showed a build of 2.1MM barrels. EIA projections are for .8MM draw –report at 10:30am this morning. This could create some very interesting swings in the chart today due to the disparity. Support looks to be in the vicinity of 41.4, but we are holding 42.1. Pullbacks are still likely to be bought in the current cycle, and big bounces are likely to be sold, as the battle between big players continues.
Trading ranges should hover between 41.4 and 43.57, but a surprise build could bring a big dip into 40.5 – I am being cautious today into the numbers.
Upside trades can be staged on the positive retest of 42.1, or at a bounce off 42.79 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 42.1 are 42.46, 42.74, 42.97, 43.14, 43.32, 43.54, 43.77, 43.93, and perhaps, 44.14, if buyers really take control.
Downside trades can be staged on the failed retest of 42.7, or at the failed retest of 43.5 with negative divergence. Targets from 43.5 are 43.27, 43.08, 42.94, 42.81, 42.7, 42.46, 42.24, 42.11, 41.98, 41.75, 41.63, 41.54, 41.4, 41.16, 40.94, 40.77, 40.57, 40.34, 40.19, 39.87, 39.56, 39.38, 39.26, 39.02, 38.74 and 38.42, but these downward levels still seem quite unlikely at this time.
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You will always be making the best choice for lowered risk by waiting for the retest with momentum confirmation.
USE THE INTRADAY TRADING TARGETS BLOG POST TO GET YOUR LEVELS FOR UPSIDE AND DOWNSIDE MOTION
As long as your levels hold in Platinum entries, holding overnight is perfectly acceptable, turning the intraday swing event, a short term swing – and thereby increasing profit opportunities.
Ultimately, momentum should agree across two times frames at least.
Please note that most entries long will require a pullback into support, and most entries short will require a press up into resistance.
Only when the squeeze is present with momentum indicators all agreeing will we take the breakout levels.
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