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SPX CHART

Screen Shot 2017-02-10 at 8.07.44 AM

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CONSIDERATIONS FOR Feb 10, 2017

ES_F– Tax reform news kept markets higher yesterday, and overnight gains in Europe and Asia are allowing for more gains this morning.  Buying the breakout is still not the best bet for risk versus reward, but buying those pullbacks have been golden.  As with yesterday, pay attention to support zones and do your best not to get caught up in what you think the market ought to be doing and what the market is actually doing.

  • Buying pressure will likely strengthen above a positive retest of 2309.75
  • Selling pressure will strengthen with a failed retest of 2297
  • Resistance sits near 2309.75 to 2314.25, with 2318 and 2323.5 above that
  • Support holds between 2302.25 and 2299.5, with 2297 and 2291.75 below that

Here’s the economic calendar for a rundown of today’s releases

Screen Shot 2017-02-10 at 8.16.11 AM

RANGE OF TODAY’S MOTION

***E-mini S&P Futures***

***Upside trades – Two options for entry–

  • Positive retest of continuation level -2309.25
  • Positive retest of support level– 2304.75 ( watch also for sellers near 2307.25)
  • Opening targets ranges for non-members – 2290.25, 2295, 2297.25, 2299.5, 2301.75, 2304.5, 2306.75, 2309.75, 2314.25 , 2317.5, 2321 and 2323.75

***Downside trades – Two options for entry–

  • Failed retest of resistance level -2306.5 (careful here – very countertrend)
  • Failed retest of support level– 2302.75
  • Opening target ranges for non-members – 2304.75, 2302.75, 2299.5, 2297, 2294.25, 2291.75,  2288.5, 2284.5, 2279.75, 2276.25, 2274.25, 2272.25, 2269.5, 2264.5, 2260.5, 2256, 2253.5 and 2249.75

***Nasdaq Futures***

The NQ_F advanced its bullish trend yesterday and is sitting near highs set overnight. The slope of Trend is shifting somewhat, making buying the breakouts even more dangerous, but patience into support or confirmation tests of new highs has been quite advantageous to the trader. Momentum remains slightly divergent, but buyers continue to ignore this. Use caution with size up here, and timing will become more important the longer the stretch continues.

Screen Shot 2017-02-10 at 8.27.57 AM
  • Buying pressure will likely strengthen with a positive retest of 5227.25 but we are near the top of the current expansion zone
  • Selling pressure will strengthen with a failed retest of 5202.25
  • Resistance sits near 5227.25 to 5233.5, with 5240.25 and 5246 above that
  • Support holds between 5202.25 and 5197, with 5186.25 and 5180 below that

***Upside trades – Two options

  • Positive retest of continuation level -5217.25
  • Positive retest of support level– 5210.5
  • Opening target ranges for non-members –  5204.25, 5210.5, 5217.25, 5222, 5227, 5233.5, and 5240.25

***Downside trades- Two options

  • Failed retest of resistance level -5217.25
  • Failed retest of support level– 5210.5
  • Opening target ranges for non-members –5202.25, 5197, 5186.25, 5180, 5173.75, 5167.25, 5161.5, 5157.25, 5154.5, 5151.5, 5145.5, 5140.5, 5137.5, 5133.25,  5128.5, 5123.75, 5119.75, 5113.25, 5106.5, and 5102.5

***Oil –WTI Crude***

With the hold of 53.11 as anticipated yesterday, oil held its uptrend into resistance and is approaching the first target area upward near 53.88 where sellers had positioned well for the fade down at the last test.  Support holds near 52.90, but little appears to promote a breakout event long in oil today.

Screen Shot 2017-02-10 at 8.38.29 AM
  • Buying pressure will likely strengthen with a positive retest of 54.4
  • Selling pressure will strengthen with a failed retest of 52.9
  • Resistance sits near 53.86 to 54.05, with 54.34 and 54.54 above that.
  • Support holds between 52.9 and 52.63, with 52.26 and 52.06 below that.

***Upside trades – Two options

  • Positive retest of continuation level -53.92 (watch for sellers at 54.06)
  • Positive retest of support level– 53.39
  • Opening target ranges for non-members –  53.63, 53.88, 54.06, 54.19, 54.34, 54.51, 54.76, 55.02, 55.19, and 55.35

***Downside trades- Two options

  • Failed retest of resistance level -53.69
  • Failed retest of support level– 53.2 ( watch 52.9 for buyers)
  • Opening target ranges for non-members – 53.39, 53.21, 53.02, 52.9, 52.64, 52.37, 52.2, 52.06, 51.91, 51.72, 51.52, 51.22, 51.04, 50.82, 50.47, 50.3, and 50.16

Further details and additional targets are in the Members Only portion of the blog.

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You will always be making the best choice for lowered risk by waiting for the retest with momentum confirmation.

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DROPBOX LINK – This spreadsheet is being updated – please download a local copy to your machine each day and replace the copy from the day before

As long as your levels hold in Platinum entries, holding overnight is perfectly acceptable, turning the intraday swing event, a short term swing – and thereby increasing profit opportunities.

Ultimately, momentum should agree across two times frames at least.

Please note that most entries long will require a pullback into support, and most entries short will require a press up into resistance.

Only when the squeeze is present with momentum indicators in agreement will we take the breakout levels.

Futures and Stocks Risk Disclosure Statement

Options Risk Disclosure