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SPX CHART

SPX - Primary Analysis - Feb-15 0805 AM (2 hour)

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CONSIDERATIONS FOR Feb 15, 2017

ES_F– A new high overnight has been sold into support near 2334 in the ES_F.  The SPX is at a key level of resistance but bullish formations tell us that fades of price into support will be bought in the near term. Failed retests of 2334 could make traders a little nervous – but only into the next support level below.  Trending formations hold steady – this means reversal trades become quite dangerous.

  • Buying pressure will likely strengthen above a positive retest of 2338
  • Selling pressure will strengthen with a failed retest of 2329
  • Resistance sits near 2340 to 2342.5, with 2346.75 and 2353.25 above that
  • Support holds between 2329 and 2323.5, with 2319.5 and 2313.25 below that

Here’s the economic calendar for a rundown of today’s releases

Screen Shot 2017-02-15 at 08.12.39

RANGE OF TODAY’S MOTION

***E-mini S&P Futures***

***Upside trades – Two options for entry–

  • Positive retest of continuation level -2329
  • Positive retest of support level– 2319
  • Opening targets ranges for non-members –  2322.5, 2328.75, 2332.5, 2336.25, and 2341.25

***Downside trades – Two options for entry–

  • Failed retest of resistance level -2322.5 (careful here – very countertrend though toppy)
  • Failed retest of support level– 2318.5
  • Opening target ranges for non-members – 2319, 2315.25, 2313, 2309.75, 2304.75, 2302.75, 2299.5, 2297, 2294.25, 2291.75,  2288.5, 2284.5, 2279.75, 2276.25, 2274.25, 2272.25, 2269.5, 2264.5, 2260.5, 2256, 2253.5 and 2249.75

***Nasdaq Futures***

The NQ_F also presented with a new high in the Globex event and holds in a bullish trend.  A fade to support is quite likely here. A rotation down into the top of the channel yesterday is the proposed track.  How well the bounce holds with momentum will give us future motion clues.  So far, the trend holds steady so pullbacks will hold, at least into lower highs if the chart loses power and begins to roll over.

Screen Shot 2017-02-15 at 08.13.28
  • Buying pressure will likely strengthen with a positive retest of 5285.25
  • Selling pressure will strengthen with a failed retest of 5263.25
  • Resistance sits near 5285.25 to 5293, with 5297.75 and 5306.5 above that
  • Support holds between 5263.25 and 5252.5, with 5246.25 and 5240 below that

***Upside trades – Two options

  • Positive retest of continuation level -5280.25
  • Positive retest of support level– 5271.25
  • Opening target ranges for non-members –  5259, 5261.5, 5263, 5271.25, 5274.5, 5280.75, 5285.25, 5293, 5297.75, and 5306.5

***Downside trades- Two options

  • Failed retest of resistance level -5279.25
  • Failed retest of support level– 5271.25
  • Opening target ranges for non-members –5273.75, 5271.25, 5267.25, 5263.25, 5259, 5252.75, 5246.75, 5240.25, 5235.25, 5229.75, 5227.75, 5221.75, 5217.75, 5212.5, 5207.5, 5202.25, 5197, 5186.25, 5180, 5173.75, 5167.25, 5161.5, 5157.25, 5154.5, 5151.5, 5145.5, and 5140.5

***Oil –WTI Crude***

Oil held steady in the congestion region after the API report, and now we wait on EIA releases today.  Interesting undercurrents here – with divergent themes of information.  I expect a failed test of resistance and a fade. The range between 51.5 and 54.3 remains uncontested.

Screen Shot 2017-02-15 at 08.29.06
  • Buying pressure will likely strengthen with a positive retest of 54.05
  • Selling pressure will strengthen with a failed retest of 52.7
  • Resistance sits near 53.46 to 53.68, with 53.88 and 54.05 above that.
  • Support holds between 52.63 and 52.37, with 52.2 and 51.78 below that.

***Upside trades – Two options

  • Positive retest of continuation level -53.2
  • Positive retest of support level– 52.86
  • Opening target ranges for non-members –  53.01, 53.35, 53.68, 53.9, 54.05, 54.19, 54.34, 54.51, 54.76, 55.02, 55.19, and 55.35

***Downside trades- Two options

  • Failed retest of resistance level -53.2
  • Failed retest of support level– 52.72
  • Opening target ranges for non-members –52.85, 53.06, 52.86, 52.64, 52.37, 52.2, 52.06, 51.91, 51.72, 51.52, 51.22, 51.04, 50.82, 50.47, 50.3, and 50.16

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As long as your levels hold in Platinum entries, holding overnight is perfectly acceptable, turning the intraday swing event, a short term swing – and thereby increasing profit opportunities.

Ultimately, momentum should agree across two times frames at least.

Please note that most entries long will require a pullback into support, and most entries short will require a press up into resistance.

Only when the squeeze is present with momentum indicators in agreement will we take the breakout levels.

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