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SPX CHART

SPX - Primary Analysis - Feb-16 0816 AM (4 hour)

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CONSIDERATIONS FOR Feb 16, 2017

ES_F– A new high formed yesterday afternoon and it was not breached overnight.  Bullish action still holds but drifts into higher support should be ‘business as usual’ in this chart.  We remain resoundingly bullish, so size reduction and caution not to take the high tests would be my recommendation in the hunt for new highs.  Pullbacks will still be bought – the chart is not exhibiting anything that suggests collapse.   Trending formations hold steady – this means reversal trades become quite dangerous.

  • Buying pressure will likely strengthen above a positive retest of 2350.5
  • Selling pressure will strengthen with a failed retest of 2334
  • Resistance sits near 2350 to 2352.5, with 2356.75 and 2358.25 above that
  • Support holds between 2329 and 2323.5, with 2319.5 and 2313.25 below that

Here’s the economic calendar for a rundown of today’s releases

Screen Shot 2017-02-16 at 8.25.16 AM

RANGE OF TODAY’S MOTION

***E-mini S&P Futures***

***Upside trades – Two options for entry–

  • Positive retest of continuation level -2352
  • Positive retest of support level– 2343
  • Opening targets ranges for non-members –  2346.75, 2351.25, 2354.5, 2356, 2358.75, 2363.50, and 2367

***Downside trades – Two options for entry–

  • Failed retest of resistance level -2346 (careful here – very countertrend though toppy)
  • Failed retest of support level– 2338.5
  • Opening target ranges for non-members – 2343.25, 2338.5, 2334, 2329.25, 2323.5, 2319, 2315.25, 2313, 2309.75, 2304.75, 2302.75, 2299.5, 2297, 2294.25, 2291.75,  2288.5, 2284.5, 2279.75, 2276.25, 2274.25, 2272.25, 2269.5, 2264.5, 2260.5, 2256, 2253.5 and 2249.75

***Nasdaq Futures***

The NQ_F also presented with a new high yesterday and holds in a bullish trend ( though sideways for the last 16 hours or so.  A fade to support is quite likely here (but I said that yesterday and the fade was only 16 points wide).  As a measure of reference, the Nasdaq is up 4% for the month – extraordinary motion that is likely to retrace. So far, the trend holds steady so pullbacks will still hold, at least into lower highs if the chart loses power and begins to roll over.

Screen Shot 2017-02-16 at 8.28.57 AM
  • Buying pressure will likely strengthen with a positive retest of 5315.75
  • Selling pressure will strengthen with a failed retest of 5284.25
  • Resistance sits near 5315.25 to 5325, with 5340.75 and 5354.75 above that
  • Support holds between 5297.5 and 5286.5, with 5276.75 and 5269.5 below that

***Upside trades – Two options

  • Positive retest of continuation level -5313.5
  • Positive retest of support level– 5297.75
  • Opening target ranges for non-members –   5293, 5297.75, 5306.5, 5313, 5315.75, 5325.5, 5340.75, 5354.5, and 5369.25

***Downside trades- Two options

  • Failed retest of resistance level -5297.25
  • Failed retest of support level– 5293.25
  • Opening target ranges for non-members –5293, 5286.5, 5277.75, 5273.75, 5271.25, 5267.25, 5263.25, 5259, 5252.75, 5246.75, 5240.25, 5235.25, 5229.75, 5227.75, 5221.75, 5217.75, 5212.5, 5207.5, 5202.25, 5197, 5186.25, 5180, 5173.75, 5167.25, 5161.5, 5157.25, 5154.5, 5151.5, 5145.5, and 5140.5

***Oil –WTI Crude***

Oil held steady in the congestion region after the EIA report as we remain in congested wait states. Interesting undercurrents here – with divergent themes of information.  I expected a failed test of resistance and a fade, but instead we have held the support area.  The range between 51.5 and 54.3 remains uncontested.

Screen Shot 2017-02-16 at 8.34.03 AM
  • Buying pressure will likely strengthen with a positive retest of 54.05
  • Selling pressure will strengthen with a failed retest of 52.7
  • Resistance sits near 53.54 to 53.68, with 53.88 and 54.05 above that.
  • Support holds between 52.63 and 52.37, with 52.2 and 51.78 below that.

***Upside trades – Two options

  • Positive retest of continuation level -53.54
  • Positive retest of support level– 53.22
  • Opening target ranges for non-members –   53.35, 53.68, 53.9, 54.05, 54.19, 54.34, 54.51, 54.76, 55.02, 55.19, and 55.35

***Downside trades- Two options

  • Failed retest of resistance level -53.3
  • Failed retest of support level– 53.01
  • Opening target ranges for non-members –52.85, 53.06, 52.86, 52.64, 52.37, 52.2, 52.06, 51.91, 51.72, 51.52, 51.22, 51.04, 50.82, 50.47, 50.3, and 50.16

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As long as your levels hold in Platinum entries, holding overnight is perfectly acceptable, turning the intraday swing event, a short term swing – and thereby increasing profit opportunities.

Ultimately, momentum should agree across two times frames at least.

Please note that most entries long will require a pullback into support, and most entries short will require a press up into resistance.

Only when the squeeze is present with momentum indicators in agreement will we take the breakout levels.

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